Propaganda for the crisis. Crisis for the propaganda. How to fight the crisis with non-economic remedies and how to use it in the political struggle.

"It's the economy stupid," said Bill Clinton during his election campaign, and he was right. Under democratic and free market conditions, economic indicators determine the effectiveness of politics and voters support. The poor economic conditions, the deteriorating living conditions of people, the inability to run a business safely, are the reasons for mass protests and the change of governments. However, this is not a rule that applies everywhere. It turns out that the economic crisis in Russia is not a reason for a revolt against ruling power. The efficient manipulation of data and directing public opinion on non-economic topics can strengthen the position of the authorities within the country, and even abroad. Seems unbelievable, but works!

The crisis

The crisis started in Russia at the end of 2014 as the oil prices faced a dramatic fall. The rouble lost 60 percent of its value to the US dollar. In the beginning of 2015, the economic crisis hits Russia with full force with the high inflation rate at 12, 9% and drop of GDP per capita from $15,000 to $9,000. Russian economy shrank by about 4 percent. The high inflation rate has caused a dramatic decrease in real wages. The crisis has affected mostly the poor people, large families, and city dwellers. The cuts in state spending forced by the catastrophic financial situation rapidly affected the education and health sector. The crisis has sharply transformed the banking sector as well as car and construction industry. Consumer spending and investments declined, and the foreign direct investment was at a drastically low level. In 2015 international rating agencies announced downgrading Russia’s credit rating to the ‘junk’ or non-investment level.

 

What caused Russia’s economic collapse?

The Russian system is primarily a corrupted, top-down economy (in 2005 - 35% of the economy was state owned; in 2017 it is already 70%).  The rapid increase of the state's share of the economy is not the result of the desire for a wider distribution of goods. The paradox of renationalisation in the Russian style results in the privatization of profits and the nationalization of losses (the best example of this rule was Rosneft's acquisition of Bashneft). Taking over the companies by the state is also a cause of the inability of many establishments due to poor management and ubiquitous corruption. Interestingly, the losses resulting from ineffective management and corruption are estimated at several times the losses Russia suffered as a result of falling oil prices.

Cancer that devours the economy is a fully sanctioned system of good’s division among the oligarchs. The economy is based on a loyal group of oligarchs who gain enormous wealth, with the full support of state institutions and secret services that follow the instructions sent from the Kremlin. The greatest beneficiary of this system is the President and his closest surroundings. Whoever wants to conduct business in Russia must adapt to it, otherwise, will be excluded from the game according to the letter of the law. According to the latest Amnesty International report, Russia is in 131^st place in terms of corruption in 176 countries.

Undoubtedly, the cause of the recent crisis in Russia, as well as the main threat to the economy in the long term context, is the lack of diversification and its full dependence on the export of raw materials. The attempts by the government to find a “blue ocean” and develop it under the conditions of the Russian economy have so far failed. The cause of the collapse was not the bad ideas, but ideology-based, top-down strategy for their implementation. It is worth recalling at least three flagship projects: the nanotechnology investment (with a huge plant), the Hyperloop project or the Russian version of Silicon Valley in Skolkovo.  Huge investments that were supposed to change the face of the Russian economy but ended with disappointment.

There is no doubt that the Western sanctions imposed on Russia after its aggression against Ukraine, are making difficult to get out of the crisis soon. These sanctions not only limit economic cooperation, trade but also don’t allow Moscow to take the new loans, needed at least to service the debt.

This is already the 4th economic crisis in Russia in the last 25 years. However, this one seems exceptionally long and especially troublesome for the Russians. Society is clearly moving from the consumer society to the shortage society. It seems that the rulers are aware of the main causes of the weak economic situation and could take appropriate steps to improve the situation.

Propaganda for the crisis. Crisis for the propaganda.

Why do not people protest? For many reasons: they are afraid because of the repressive system in Russia works very intensively, they have to struggle for survival as well as more than 60 million of Russians are maintained by the state (20 mln employees, 40 mln pensioners).

 An important role is also played by the massive propaganda machine. The lie repeated many times becomes true - it is the main rule of the Russian information policy. People are being told that the main cause of all economic failures and worsening living conditions are Western sanctions imposed on Russia. Imposing retaliatory sanctions on the other countries, such as the ban on the import of food products from Poland, has been explained as a beneficial for Russian citizens because European goods are “genetically modified and unhealthy”.

The aggressive rhetoric of the government and state media intensified while the Russian economy went into recession. As Western sanctions have caused the impoverishment of the Russian people, on one hand dealing with the crisis is a patriotic duty of every Russian, and on the other hand, the role of the state is to respond to this hostile gesture.  In this situation, it is absolutely natural that defense is a priority and that significant resources from the budget for military modernization should be devoted. In the budget for 2017, $43 billion was allocated for defense (4.7 % of Russia's GDP), what in the situation of a country that is struggling with the economic crisis, not a war, is a dizzying sum.

Undoubtedly, the main task of the internal propaganda is to exclude President Putin from responsibility for the economic problems that the Russians face. There will always be a scapegoat that can be blamed for the misery of ordinary people. Smart shifting of the responsibility shows that President Putin has nothing to do with the deteriorating living conditions of the citizens. Some analysts compare Putin's carefully crafted image with the propaganda of Brezhnev's time. There are for sure many similarities in economic matters: backwardness of the top-down market, the economic gap between Russia and western countries, expensive top-down planned unsuccessful investments, huge costs of the aggressive international policy and lack of necessary economic reforms. However, this comparison should be a warning to President Putin because it was the catastrophic economic situation that led to the collapse of Brezhnev and subsequent historical changes in the Soviet Union.

Russians because of their mentality, history, as well as understandable fear, do not undermine the official line of authority. However it is interesting, how successful is Russian propaganda abroad.

I would admit that the so called active measures not only retained the efficiency from the Cold War but more effectively adapted to the new capabilities of modern technology. Internet development has abolished previous communication barriers. New media provides real-time access to information and enables immediate penetration. Thanks to social media, anonymous individuals can quickly disseminate desirable content. The Russian, foreign language media (RT, Sputnik), theoretically objective bloggers, Internet trolls, but also invited to the discussion journalists, scientists - all working on favorable for Russia message to the world. Russian foreign media serve not only to support Russian policy but also to disseminate misinformation about the true state of the economy, science, poverty, and investment.

Sometimes the message produced in Kremlin, after being transported through several friendly sources, begins to operate as reliable information in the trusted Western media.

Few months ago Ministry of Finance and the Russian Federation Federal State Statistic Service (Rosstat) presented data on sudden improvement of the economic situation. Based on this information, some banks, financial institutions have prepared optimistic financial forecasts. This information was also picked up by several journalists, proclaiming not only the end of the economic crisis in Russia but also a sudden positive change in the Russian economic structure.

In an article entitled "Sorry Senator McCain, Russia No Longer Just a Gas Station Masquerading As A Country" (Forbes magazine) the author maliciously refers to “hating Russia" Senator McCain, claiming that the Senator was wrong because Russia does not only managed to cope with the crisis already but also magically diversified its sources of revenue…Means that Kremlin Anti-Crisis Show runs really well, and journalist failed to do his homework properly.

The Rosstat is directly subject to political scrutiny. Due to the need of improving the image of the government ahead of the spring 2018 election, last data published by Rosstat are in conflict with the data from previous months. In January 2017 the Russian Statistical Office changed the methodology of research and by the way, they completely changed the market data. According to the new information, over the last two years (2015-2016) the Russian economy shrank by 3%, and not by 4.5% as previously estimated. There has been an increase in industrial output, although there has been a simultaneous decline in citizens' income and fixed investment.

Rosstat's subordination to the government made official data less credible, and unfortunately, they should be treated more as an element of propaganda than reliable market data.

 According to the report by The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) “Increasing caution is advised when interpreting these data. Doubts regarding the quality of the indicators presented by Rosstat make the assessment of Russia’s actual economic situation increasingly difficult. As a consequence, reservations towards the Russian statistics office seem to be all the more justified. These suggest that Rosstat is under political pressure from the Kremlin and that these new, improved statistics meet the government’s propaganda-motivated demand for information.”

Political and Economic Consequences

Christopher Hartwell, President of Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE) is summarizing the current Russian economic situation: “Sounding the trumpet about defeating the recession would be like Napoleon claiming he conquered Russia once he reached Smolensk,”.

Available economic data indicate that Russia might be slowly recovering from the crisis, but stagnation is expected in the years to come. Due to the lack of in-depth reforms, compared to other countries, the Russian economy will be receding. Even the Russian Prime Minister Medvedev during the last Gaidar Forum Russia and the World: the Choice of Priorities said: “The fact that Russia overcame the recession doesn’t necessarily mean the problems are resolved,” He also noticed that the key challenges are Russia’s technological backwardness, the commodity-based economy and the enormous role of the government in it. The World Bank report on Russia (RER) shows encouraging signs of overcoming the recession (recovery in consumer demand, the growth of economic activity, inflation decline). However, it states that adjustment has taken place through massive expenditure cuts, as opposed to revenue mobilization and still Russia’s growth projections remain sensitive to oil prices.

The last available monthly report of the World Bank on Russia (June 2017) again highlights the signs of recovery and defines medium-term prognosis as favorable, but it says Russia’s longer-term growth prospects remained constrained by its low productivity.

This means that further falls in oil prices, for example, through faster shale production in the USA or ineffectiveness of oil production limitation agreement could reduce revenue, investment, and confidence. If the President Donald Trump will fulfill his promise to make the U.S. an independent energy power, Russia may have big problems maintaining stable economic growth. Sooner or later the development of car batteries combined with the emergence of renewable energy sources will make the basic Russian raw materials no longer an essential element of the global economy.

The Russian economy is strictly based on public expenditure, so any cuts in these expenditures forced by reduced oil prices, lead to serious effects throughout the economy. The average income of statistical Russians in 20% comes from the state (in 2006 it was only 11,6 with a decline in income from business activity (in 2016 only 7.8%, in 1993  - 18.6%.)

So how the weak condition of the Russian economy translates into the political power of President Putin? Mass strikes and protests in the near future in Russia are unlikely. It seems that the only thing that could hinder President Putin's ruling is the oligarch rebellion caused by the aggressive and uncompromising foreign policy of the Kremlin that leads many Russian businessmen to serious financial problems. As a result of sanctions, some oligarchs can not conduct the free economic activity and use their frozen funds abroad. Moreover, majority of the oligarchs is no longer willing to bear the costs of unprofitable government investments. So far, Putin has won the oligarchs with his loyalty and protection by the state services as well as strong opposition to introduce any economic reforms that could disrupt the existing oligarchic system. Undoubtedly, the extension of the US sanctions will undermine President Putin's position among influential Russian businessmen. How long will it be possible to maintain the support of the oligarchs in a country where there is less and less to be taken, is unknown.

There is such a joke in Russia: Before the next year's election, Putin went to the fortune-teller asking for his political future. The fortune - teller said that it would be his last spring. Putin: "In that case, there will be no spring". I am wondering if this simple solution can be easily translated into the economy.

CypRUS. The role of the European Union and Russia in the failure of Cyprus reunification process.

Social context.

In Nicosia, Greek and Turkish Cypriots meet in the buffer zone to show their support for the unification process. During these meetings, they read poetry, organize joint attractions for children, talk. However, it is definitely not enough to force politicians from both sides to make the more decisive action. As rightly sums up the fiasco of the Crans-Montana talks one of Cyprus website, "Cypriot leaders traveled to the Alps knowing there was no pressure on them to make peace."

The social context of the Cyprus reunification process and its failure is not of interest to the media due to the small number of Cypriots actively involved in supporting the unification negotiations. The joint meetings of the small group of Greek and Turkish Cypriot supporters of unification are more socializing than direct political action. Too bad, because what they say is convincing and patriotic:

„My father sais to me

 Love your Homeland

My Homeland is divided into two

Which part should I love? (Poem by Nese Yasin)

However, it is difficult to deny the point of pro-union movement leaders who pay attention to the main social barrier of reunification: nationalism, which is further promoted at all, levels of education, in churches and mosques, the military and the media. Textbooks on both sides contain ideologically-re-edited versions of the island's history instead of the truth. The chiefs of both armies are nationals of other countries (Greece and Turkey). On government buildings, there are two flags (the Republic of Cyprus and Greece or the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and Turkey). On both sides, there is no support for businessmen who would like to cooperate with each other. There are also no massive integration programs as a result of which young people could get to know each other better.

Fostering mutual hatred, turning a blind eye to the aggression of young people against the minority, renewing fears and exaggerating the wrongdoings is brutally exploited by domestic and foreign opponents of a reunification of the island. To put it bluntly, there is no strong, organized and efficient group in Cyprus, which would contribute to the reunification of the island. In contrast to the large and influential forces which are against unity. The Orthodox Church and right-wing parties openly declare their reluctance to unite the island. The main unofficial opposition to the unification of Cyprus is Russia and controlled by the Kremlin, prominent Greek politicians as well as a whole range of pro-Russian Cypriot officials from various right-to-left parties, including officially supporting the integration the Communist Party (AKEL).

Cyprus  - European Union member state.

Cyprus is a small island with only 800.000 people, but its location in the Eastern Mediterranean in the south of Turkey, west of Syria and Lebanon, northwest of Israel, north of Egypt, and southeast of Greece makes it a crucial point in international politics. Thus the reunification of the island is an important issue not only for the countries of the region but also for Russia, the European Union, and NATO.

The biggest beneficiary of the reunification of Cyprus, apart from the inhabitants of the island itself, would be the European Union due to increased security in the Mediterranean, the reduction of Turkey-Greece tension and new energy politics’ opportunities. The Cypriot agreement would open a new chapter in the European Union's relations with Turkey, allowing a new form of cooperation. Solving Cyprus problem is also opening the way for a deeper EU-NATO cooperation by eliminating obstacles connected with difficult bilateral relations between Greece and Turkey. However, considering Cypriot relations with Russia, the entry of Cyprus into the North Atlantic structures seems simply unrealistic. The agreement would also create an opportunity to send gas from East Mediterranean to the European Union through Turkey (maybe also to Turkey), which would be another step towards diversifying gas supplies.

Overcoming the long-term crisis would be a Brussels’ tremendous success. It would definitely improve the image and show the European Union as a strong and united organization. In the face of serious problems that have recently plagued Europe, such an achievement would be immense. That is why it is difficult to understand the limited involvement of UE and its member states in the Cyprus unification process.

Special nature of Cyprus-Russia Relationship

Russia has little to gain from the end of a four-decade split between Greek and Turkish Cypriots., but the failure of peace talks would be undeniably beneficial for Moscow. It would remain the Greek-Turkish crack within NATO, freeze gas pipeline projects in the Mediterranean area and allow Russia to keep Cyprus as a Russian foothold in the European Union.

For years, Russia and Cyprus had close ties: financial, political, social, religious. In Cyprus, Kremlin-related businessmen are investing their money using a favorable tax system. Cyprus was the top destination for direct investment out of Russia in 2016, and the largest source of foreign investment into Russia. According to the Russian central bank, in the second quarter of 2016, it accounted for $ 2.8 billion in investment, more than twice as much as the next country.

Cyprus is Russia's gateway to the European Union, which Moscow sometimes uses despite Brussels’ opposition. It is worth mentioning that in 2015 Cyprus agreed to allow Russian naval ships to stop in Cyprus for ports. Cyprus ports may be used to smuggle jet fuel into Syria, bypassing EU restrictions.

 Cyprus citizenship by investment program is very popular among Russians.  It is enough to invest in real estate to get a Cypriot (UE) passport. In 2016, Russians were the largest group among new RoC citizens, 35% of all newly issued passports were granted to Russian citizens, the other UK citizens 9%, third Greeks - 8%.

 How strong Russian position in one of EU member countries is has been also proven by the story of detained at Larnaca airport Christopher R. Metsos - Russian Intelligence agent, who was released on bail and then disappeared. The Guardian wrote that "his disappearance has highlighted Cyprus's close ties to Russia, and the potential that Moscow helped him escape from the Mediterranean island.”

Another influential example of Russia's submission is the cooperation of the Cypriot authorities with representatives of Moscow in the Magnitsky case. This attitude has caused a wave of criticism towards the government in Nicosia and a series of articles condemning the servility of Cyprus against Moscow. POLITICO in the article "West turn a blind eye on Cyprus” –writes” After all, Cyprus is facilitating a Russian investigation whose sole purpose is to cover up one of the biggest fraud cases in Russian history. Meanwhile, authorities in Nicosia are stalling their own investigations into the laundering of proceeds through Cypriot bank accounts.

This includes Cyprus under such circumstances would be contrary to American interests and values. It also would undermine the effectiveness of the Magnitsky Act and send the wrong message - that Russian corruption and human rights abuses will continue and that the enablers in the West will face no consequences. "

There are about 50,000 Russians in Cyprus (not including those who already have a Cypriot passport) and a similar number of so-called Pontus Greek Cypriots - citizens of the former Soviet republics who could prove their Greek ancestry and emigrated to Greece and Cyprus. Pontus speak Greek, but they communicate with each other in Russian and operate in their closed Russian-speaking group. Every year the island is visited by hundreds of thousands of Russian tourists - Russians are the second largest group of tourist coming to Cyprus, just after UK citizens.

This year, Russians living in Cyprus decided to set up their own political party. The authorities in Nicosia consider it as understandable.

Russia's friendly relationship with Cyprus is nothing new, although it has been sorely tested during Cyprus bank crisis. Cyrus bailout – was, in fact, the punishment imposed on Cyprus by the European Union for too close cooperation with Russia. Thousands of innocent people have been deprived of their savings by the decision of the EU authorities. As a result of Troika decisions, bailout affected in a huge resentment of the Cypriots against Europe and in economic terms the takeover of the largest Cypriot bank by Russian shareholders. Thanks to the financial support that Russia has given Cyprus during the crisis and a joint aversion to the EU institutions, it can be said that the relations between the two countries are even stronger.

Cypriots were surprised with the reports about Russian melding in elections in the US and EU. At the beginning of 2017 appeared the allegations of Russian influencing the Cypriot peace process. The case was described by three credible newspapers: NYT, Politico, and Bloomberg. The Cypriots were disturbed by these reports, and President Nicos Anastasiades reminded journalists not to give out untested information.

But the Russians have already obstructed the process of unification of the island. In 2004, the Russians blocked the UN Security Council's peace agreements, prepared by UN and supported by the United States. That agreement failed because Greek Cypriots rejected it, but Russia also vetoed a resolution in the U.N. Security Council on changes that would have taken effect if Cyprus had reunified(the 14 other members voted in favor). It was Moscow's first veto since 1994.

Also during the last round of peace talks, officially and unofficially with the help of "friendly" Cypriot and Greek politicians, the Russians torpedoed the unification process. 

(Mustafa Akıncı, Nikos Anastasiadis, Antonio Guterres)
When the negotiations began in Geneva, Russia's ambassador to Cyprus, participated in a seminar organized in Nicosia by small right-wing parties. The seminar was decidedly anti-union, and Ambassador Stanislav Osadchiy was greeted there with a standing ovation. When the information was publicized and a scandal erupted, the ambassador explained that he was not aware of the nature of the meeting. Cyprus Mail - English language newspaper in Cyprus have pointed out the improper remarks of the Russian ambassador about the peace process as well as his unreasonable popularity. It is a fact that a Russian ambassador is a person who is known by most Cypriots and is often a guest in the national media, as opposed to the Greek ambassador, whose name does not know the majority of the island so friendly to Greece.

The allegations formulated by Cyprus Mail already in November 2016 "Russia's ambassador, in contrast, is the darling of the anti-settlement media and of the rejectionist political parties, because he constantly says things aimed at undermining the talks or making the pursuit of a deal More difficult. He successfully made the issue of guarantees, a potential deal-breaker, announcing after a meeting with Giorgos Lillikas that the guarantees were unheard of in the modern age and adding that Nato would never accept the settlement, as if they were any of his business " got even more meaningful in February 2017 after the talks were stopped because of the unusual behavior of Greek Minister of Foreign Affairs Nikos Kotsias, a faithful Russian friend.

This is a fragment from Cyprus Mail describing the behavior of the Foreign Minister of Greece during the January talks: "Then the working lunch started, during which, according to sources, Kotzias started lecturing, interrupting and criticizing other participants. He reminded Guterres that the UN's only job was to implement UN Security Council resolutions, adding that Cyprus was not an intercoammunal problem but a question of invasion and occupation. Then Guterres had a meeting with all three powers guarantor, followed by bilateral meetings with each of them. The guarantor powers agrees to let the senior experts start work on the issue. All except Kotzias were ready for the working group to start immediately. The Greek FM said the Greek side was not prepared for this to happen and asked for a ten-day postponement. He insisted others pushed back. "

The role of Greek politicians in the final rupture of the unification negotiations is unclearshots, but hit 20 times overboard). European and NATO intelligence officials were poring over the links between the Kremlin and senior figures from Syriza and the Independent Greeks party since 2015.

Despite numerous accusations of interfering in the integration negotiations, Russia has denied that it was undermining Cyprus' reunification. In the words of its representatives, the Kremlin has described press reports of its alleged ingenuity in the peace process as "fake news", underscoring its devotion to Cyprus and Cypriots.

Consequences of the missed opportunity

 Intense and multifaceted involvement of Russia and her friends undoubtedly paid off. The negotiations were finally broken and there is little chance that they will start again in the near future. Against renewing the unification process soon is not the only campaign before the Cyprus elections in 2018 but mainly the absence of a strong organized social and political base in Cyprus and abroad, which would be in favor of integration.

With a limited commitment in Cyprus reunification process of the European Union authorities, which once again hand over a sensitive region under Russian domination, and agree that an EU member state is clearly operating as a Russian sphere of influence, it is likely that a division of the island will progress.

Both Greek and Turkish Cypriots blame each other for the failure of the unification talks. Already a few days after the break of the talks, one can see the reciprocal, unfriendly gestures and radicalization of views on both sides of the island. The worst possible, but unfortunately the real consequence of the breakdown of the peace talks is the annexation of North Cyprus by Turkey. Moreover, in the context of the Syrian conflict and the migration problem in Europe, Brussels’ policy on the reunification of Cyprus seems very short-sighted and reckless.

(Espen Barth Eide - One of the few, sincerely saddened by the failure of Cypriot peace negotiations.)

It would not be fair, however, not to mention significant support and personal involvement in the negotiations of United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and UN Special Advisor, Espen Barth Eide, who, despite unjustified critique of the Cypriot authorities, worked to the end, and believed in the success of the talks.

Happy New Year Russia!

The year 2017 will mark the 100th anniversary of the October Revolution. Revolution, which brought the most murderous, cruel and inhuman system that oppressed half of Europe for over 70 years. Today, most people in Western Europe and America do not realize what a tragedy for us - the citizens of Eastern Europe was communism. The horrors of the Bolshevik activists, described in the literature, fully coincide with the relations of those who survived the revolution. My great-grandmother, who survived two world wars, always said that nobody sowed terror such as the Bolsheviks. Their cruelty, stemming from years of humiliating peasants and workers by the Tsars, took in 1917 the nature of rabid animals released from cages and wanting to avenge his tormentor. The desire for revenge, easy prey, degradation of those who stood up over them and absolute impunity of the boors, led to the murder of hundreds of thousands of people.

The Red Terror was not only a lack of respect for human life, property rights, above all it was the omnipresent fear. Anyone could have been shot, enough was a false accusation, not spared either child. Executions were carried out in the middle of nowhere at the naked victims in order to pass the Red Army clothing. The corpses defiled, snatching for profit gold teeth.

For the residents of Eastern Europe, for generations, a symbol of law, values, justice was the West. Although Soviet propaganda that proclaimed "rotting West", Eastern Europeans believed that in the US and Western Europe, are undeniable, everlasting values, that give a sense of security and allow you to live with dignity.

Paradoxically, in the centenary of the October Revolution, a reality seems to be a perversion of the basic values of the Western world - property rights, democratic rules, physical security and economic development. Unwavering until now the authorities become questionable. There were populist slogans, which would have been even ashamed for a provincial smartass, and now proudly repeats them future United States president. But what must be emphasized, this is not the result of the thought-out strategy of the Kremlin, or the actions of the Russian special services, unfortunately, this is the result of the degeneration of European and American political class, which is focusing on problems of minority groups, forgetting about majority group of bread eaters.

Is it possible that someone, who Anna Politkovska describes as "KGB spy, who even in this role did not make any particular impression" led to profound changes in the European consciousness, as some journalists claim. Certainly not, but without a doubt Vladimir Putin, it is one of the best, and what is very important, tough and consistent player in the contemporary world politics. Significantly, he is also limited in a lot of political and social dependency. He can operate fully autonomously, independently of the current party line, and despite the unfavorable economic situation. For several years, the Western media write about return of superpower politics of Russia and about the influence of the Kremlin on political realities. How is this possible if since several years, the Russian economy is in recession. Based mostly on oil and state, poorly managed companies, the Russian economy barely breathing. The Russian army since the days of the Soviet Union plunged the increasingly crisis. Underpaid, underfed soldiers, steal what they can. Outdated equipment, not only does not work in modern combat conditions, but often is simply a danger to soldiers serving it. "Modern" achievements of military technology, bring a smile on the faces of not only specialists of weapons, but even the Internet. Frequent technical problems of the aircraft carrier "Kuznietsov" have become topics of many jokes. Further planes disasters, show the state of the Russian aviation. Newly developed tank, promoted as a miracle of modern technology, looks like the German construction from ... the Second World War. Promoting "patriotic Russian science", instead of rising Russia in the technological peaks, leads her on a research scrap-heap. In such unfavorable conditions, half the world sees Vladimir Putin as a savior and the other as a serious threat.
Electoral success of pro Kremlin candidates can't be attribute only to Putin. Bulgaria, Moldova, USA, next year probably France, and Germany make choices based on the achievements and failures of their politicians, possibly using experiences of other European countries.Without a doubt, they are taken by Russia's attempts to disrupt the elections, with the help of influential businessmen and journalists who spread false information to the public. It works according to the schema described by Politkovskaya, "Putin comes to things like a typical KGB officer. First released the information trial balloon in a narrow group of people. In today's Russia is a group of the political elite of the capital. This is to canvass the possible reaction on cultivated politics. If such a reaction does not occur, or if it has the dynamics of jellyfish, it's all a game. Putin can push his line, spread ideas and act as it deems appropriate, without needing to look back." Recently this technique has been supplemented by a new form of spreading misinformation through hacking. How big role this method played in the last presidential election in the US, we do not know. Candidate that won is for Putin's definitely more convenient, that does not necessarily mean leading pro-Russian policy. Vladimir Putin is well aware of the fact that Trump is an inexperienced politician who will be making some mistakes. Ridiculing the president of the United States as well as his constant arguing with key allies, is for the Russian policy the perfect opportunity to expand its sphere of influence. If it is also possible to suggest Trump some clever advisers Kremlin - friendly, who persuade him to make concessions to Russia, the better.

No doubt it is Putin's merit is to build key alliances, that put beyond the pale of the other players.Extremely successful was  Putin's maneuver to intimidate President Erdogan and bringing to the Russian-Turkish alliance. The alliance not only strengthens the Russian position on the Middle East but what is important definitely weakens NATO in the region. Could not be underestimated also the alliance with Iran and correct relations with China, which give hope for setting in motion Russian economy. Additionally need to be mentioned the agreement with OPEC on reducing oil production, giving Russia a chance to bounce back from the economic bottom.
The year 2016 can be summarized as a year of gifts for Vladimir Putin. Gifts unearned, not elaborated, but very nice. The Weak European Union, with leaders who do not listen to its citizens, becoming less respected by intimidated by terrorists and political correctness Europeans.  The only EU country, who has not given in the Russian propaganda and for years standing in opposition to the Kremlin, decided to leave the Community. United States conduct inconsistent policy in the Middle East. With Trump as a leader, US policy will be unpredictable, short-sighted and antagonize next allies - Turkey, Japan, Israel, and thus allowing the creation of a new, powerful, based on Russia, bloc in the Middle East and Southeast Asia