CypRUS. The role of the European Union and Russia in the failure of Cyprus reunification process.

Social context.

In Nicosia, Greek and Turkish Cypriots meet in the buffer zone to show their support for the unification process. During these meetings, they read poetry, organize joint attractions for children, talk. However, it is definitely not enough to force politicians from both sides to make the more decisive action. As rightly sums up the fiasco of the Crans-Montana talks one of Cyprus website, "Cypriot leaders traveled to the Alps knowing there was no pressure on them to make peace."

The social context of the Cyprus reunification process and its failure is not of interest to the media due to the small number of Cypriots actively involved in supporting the unification negotiations. The joint meetings of the small group of Greek and Turkish Cypriot supporters of unification are more socializing than direct political action. Too bad, because what they say is convincing and patriotic:

„My father sais to me

 Love your Homeland

My Homeland is divided into two

Which part should I love? (Poem by Nese Yasin)

However, it is difficult to deny the point of pro-union movement leaders who pay attention to the main social barrier of reunification: nationalism, which is further promoted at all, levels of education, in churches and mosques, the military and the media. Textbooks on both sides contain ideologically-re-edited versions of the island's history instead of the truth. The chiefs of both armies are nationals of other countries (Greece and Turkey). On government buildings, there are two flags (the Republic of Cyprus and Greece or the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and Turkey). On both sides, there is no support for businessmen who would like to cooperate with each other. There are also no massive integration programs as a result of which young people could get to know each other better.

Fostering mutual hatred, turning a blind eye to the aggression of young people against the minority, renewing fears and exaggerating the wrongdoings is brutally exploited by domestic and foreign opponents of a reunification of the island. To put it bluntly, there is no strong, organized and efficient group in Cyprus, which would contribute to the reunification of the island. In contrast to the large and influential forces which are against unity. The Orthodox Church and right-wing parties openly declare their reluctance to unite the island. The main unofficial opposition to the unification of Cyprus is Russia and controlled by the Kremlin, prominent Greek politicians as well as a whole range of pro-Russian Cypriot officials from various right-to-left parties, including officially supporting the integration the Communist Party (AKEL).

Cyprus  - European Union member state.

Cyprus is a small island with only 800.000 people, but its location in the Eastern Mediterranean in the south of Turkey, west of Syria and Lebanon, northwest of Israel, north of Egypt, and southeast of Greece makes it a crucial point in international politics. Thus the reunification of the island is an important issue not only for the countries of the region but also for Russia, the European Union, and NATO.

The biggest beneficiary of the reunification of Cyprus, apart from the inhabitants of the island itself, would be the European Union due to increased security in the Mediterranean, the reduction of Turkey-Greece tension and new energy politics’ opportunities. The Cypriot agreement would open a new chapter in the European Union's relations with Turkey, allowing a new form of cooperation. Solving Cyprus problem is also opening the way for a deeper EU-NATO cooperation by eliminating obstacles connected with difficult bilateral relations between Greece and Turkey. However, considering Cypriot relations with Russia, the entry of Cyprus into the North Atlantic structures seems simply unrealistic. The agreement would also create an opportunity to send gas from East Mediterranean to the European Union through Turkey (maybe also to Turkey), which would be another step towards diversifying gas supplies.

Overcoming the long-term crisis would be a Brussels’ tremendous success. It would definitely improve the image and show the European Union as a strong and united organization. In the face of serious problems that have recently plagued Europe, such an achievement would be immense. That is why it is difficult to understand the limited involvement of UE and its member states in the Cyprus unification process.

Special nature of Cyprus-Russia Relationship

Russia has little to gain from the end of a four-decade split between Greek and Turkish Cypriots., but the failure of peace talks would be undeniably beneficial for Moscow. It would remain the Greek-Turkish crack within NATO, freeze gas pipeline projects in the Mediterranean area and allow Russia to keep Cyprus as a Russian foothold in the European Union.

For years, Russia and Cyprus had close ties: financial, political, social, religious. In Cyprus, Kremlin-related businessmen are investing their money using a favorable tax system. Cyprus was the top destination for direct investment out of Russia in 2016, and the largest source of foreign investment into Russia. According to the Russian central bank, in the second quarter of 2016, it accounted for $ 2.8 billion in investment, more than twice as much as the next country.

Cyprus is Russia's gateway to the European Union, which Moscow sometimes uses despite Brussels’ opposition. It is worth mentioning that in 2015 Cyprus agreed to allow Russian naval ships to stop in Cyprus for ports. Cyprus ports may be used to smuggle jet fuel into Syria, bypassing EU restrictions.

 Cyprus citizenship by investment program is very popular among Russians.  It is enough to invest in real estate to get a Cypriot (UE) passport. In 2016, Russians were the largest group among new RoC citizens, 35% of all newly issued passports were granted to Russian citizens, the other UK citizens 9%, third Greeks - 8%.

 How strong Russian position in one of EU member countries is has been also proven by the story of detained at Larnaca airport Christopher R. Metsos - Russian Intelligence agent, who was released on bail and then disappeared. The Guardian wrote that "his disappearance has highlighted Cyprus's close ties to Russia, and the potential that Moscow helped him escape from the Mediterranean island.”

Another influential example of Russia's submission is the cooperation of the Cypriot authorities with representatives of Moscow in the Magnitsky case. This attitude has caused a wave of criticism towards the government in Nicosia and a series of articles condemning the servility of Cyprus against Moscow. POLITICO in the article "West turn a blind eye on Cyprus” –writes” After all, Cyprus is facilitating a Russian investigation whose sole purpose is to cover up one of the biggest fraud cases in Russian history. Meanwhile, authorities in Nicosia are stalling their own investigations into the laundering of proceeds through Cypriot bank accounts.

This includes Cyprus under such circumstances would be contrary to American interests and values. It also would undermine the effectiveness of the Magnitsky Act and send the wrong message - that Russian corruption and human rights abuses will continue and that the enablers in the West will face no consequences. "

There are about 50,000 Russians in Cyprus (not including those who already have a Cypriot passport) and a similar number of so-called Pontus Greek Cypriots - citizens of the former Soviet republics who could prove their Greek ancestry and emigrated to Greece and Cyprus. Pontus speak Greek, but they communicate with each other in Russian and operate in their closed Russian-speaking group. Every year the island is visited by hundreds of thousands of Russian tourists - Russians are the second largest group of tourist coming to Cyprus, just after UK citizens.

This year, Russians living in Cyprus decided to set up their own political party. The authorities in Nicosia consider it as understandable.

Russia's friendly relationship with Cyprus is nothing new, although it has been sorely tested during Cyprus bank crisis. Cyrus bailout – was, in fact, the punishment imposed on Cyprus by the European Union for too close cooperation with Russia. Thousands of innocent people have been deprived of their savings by the decision of the EU authorities. As a result of Troika decisions, bailout affected in a huge resentment of the Cypriots against Europe and in economic terms the takeover of the largest Cypriot bank by Russian shareholders. Thanks to the financial support that Russia has given Cyprus during the crisis and a joint aversion to the EU institutions, it can be said that the relations between the two countries are even stronger.

Cypriots were surprised with the reports about Russian melding in elections in the US and EU. At the beginning of 2017 appeared the allegations of Russian influencing the Cypriot peace process. The case was described by three credible newspapers: NYT, Politico, and Bloomberg. The Cypriots were disturbed by these reports, and President Nicos Anastasiades reminded journalists not to give out untested information.

But the Russians have already obstructed the process of unification of the island. In 2004, the Russians blocked the UN Security Council's peace agreements, prepared by UN and supported by the United States. That agreement failed because Greek Cypriots rejected it, but Russia also vetoed a resolution in the U.N. Security Council on changes that would have taken effect if Cyprus had reunified(the 14 other members voted in favor). It was Moscow's first veto since 1994.

Also during the last round of peace talks, officially and unofficially with the help of "friendly" Cypriot and Greek politicians, the Russians torpedoed the unification process. 

(Mustafa Akıncı, Nikos Anastasiadis, Antonio Guterres)
When the negotiations began in Geneva, Russia's ambassador to Cyprus, participated in a seminar organized in Nicosia by small right-wing parties. The seminar was decidedly anti-union, and Ambassador Stanislav Osadchiy was greeted there with a standing ovation. When the information was publicized and a scandal erupted, the ambassador explained that he was not aware of the nature of the meeting. Cyprus Mail - English language newspaper in Cyprus have pointed out the improper remarks of the Russian ambassador about the peace process as well as his unreasonable popularity. It is a fact that a Russian ambassador is a person who is known by most Cypriots and is often a guest in the national media, as opposed to the Greek ambassador, whose name does not know the majority of the island so friendly to Greece.

The allegations formulated by Cyprus Mail already in November 2016 "Russia's ambassador, in contrast, is the darling of the anti-settlement media and of the rejectionist political parties, because he constantly says things aimed at undermining the talks or making the pursuit of a deal More difficult. He successfully made the issue of guarantees, a potential deal-breaker, announcing after a meeting with Giorgos Lillikas that the guarantees were unheard of in the modern age and adding that Nato would never accept the settlement, as if they were any of his business " got even more meaningful in February 2017 after the talks were stopped because of the unusual behavior of Greek Minister of Foreign Affairs Nikos Kotsias, a faithful Russian friend.

This is a fragment from Cyprus Mail describing the behavior of the Foreign Minister of Greece during the January talks: "Then the working lunch started, during which, according to sources, Kotzias started lecturing, interrupting and criticizing other participants. He reminded Guterres that the UN's only job was to implement UN Security Council resolutions, adding that Cyprus was not an intercoammunal problem but a question of invasion and occupation. Then Guterres had a meeting with all three powers guarantor, followed by bilateral meetings with each of them. The guarantor powers agrees to let the senior experts start work on the issue. All except Kotzias were ready for the working group to start immediately. The Greek FM said the Greek side was not prepared for this to happen and asked for a ten-day postponement. He insisted others pushed back. "

The role of Greek politicians in the final rupture of the unification negotiations is unclearshots, but hit 20 times overboard). European and NATO intelligence officials were poring over the links between the Kremlin and senior figures from Syriza and the Independent Greeks party since 2015.

Despite numerous accusations of interfering in the integration negotiations, Russia has denied that it was undermining Cyprus' reunification. In the words of its representatives, the Kremlin has described press reports of its alleged ingenuity in the peace process as "fake news", underscoring its devotion to Cyprus and Cypriots.

Consequences of the missed opportunity

 Intense and multifaceted involvement of Russia and her friends undoubtedly paid off. The negotiations were finally broken and there is little chance that they will start again in the near future. Against renewing the unification process soon is not the only campaign before the Cyprus elections in 2018 but mainly the absence of a strong organized social and political base in Cyprus and abroad, which would be in favor of integration.

With a limited commitment in Cyprus reunification process of the European Union authorities, which once again hand over a sensitive region under Russian domination, and agree that an EU member state is clearly operating as a Russian sphere of influence, it is likely that a division of the island will progress.

Both Greek and Turkish Cypriots blame each other for the failure of the unification talks. Already a few days after the break of the talks, one can see the reciprocal, unfriendly gestures and radicalization of views on both sides of the island. The worst possible, but unfortunately the real consequence of the breakdown of the peace talks is the annexation of North Cyprus by Turkey. Moreover, in the context of the Syrian conflict and the migration problem in Europe, Brussels’ policy on the reunification of Cyprus seems very short-sighted and reckless.

(Espen Barth Eide - One of the few, sincerely saddened by the failure of Cypriot peace negotiations.)

It would not be fair, however, not to mention significant support and personal involvement in the negotiations of United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and UN Special Advisor, Espen Barth Eide, who, despite unjustified critique of the Cypriot authorities, worked to the end, and believed in the success of the talks.