Propaganda for the crisis. Crisis for the propaganda. How to fight the crisis with non-economic remedies and how to use it in the political struggle.

"It's the economy stupid," said Bill Clinton during his election campaign, and he was right. Under democratic and free market conditions, economic indicators determine the effectiveness of politics and voters support. The poor economic conditions, the deteriorating living conditions of people, the inability to run a business safely, are the reasons for mass protests and the change of governments. However, this is not a rule that applies everywhere. It turns out that the economic crisis in Russia is not a reason for a revolt against ruling power. The efficient manipulation of data and directing public opinion on non-economic topics can strengthen the position of the authorities within the country, and even abroad. Seems unbelievable, but works!

The crisis

The crisis started in Russia at the end of 2014 as the oil prices faced a dramatic fall. The rouble lost 60 percent of its value to the US dollar. In the beginning of 2015, the economic crisis hits Russia with full force with the high inflation rate at 12, 9% and drop of GDP per capita from $15,000 to $9,000. Russian economy shrank by about 4 percent. The high inflation rate has caused a dramatic decrease in real wages. The crisis has affected mostly the poor people, large families, and city dwellers. The cuts in state spending forced by the catastrophic financial situation rapidly affected the education and health sector. The crisis has sharply transformed the banking sector as well as car and construction industry. Consumer spending and investments declined, and the foreign direct investment was at a drastically low level. In 2015 international rating agencies announced downgrading Russia’s credit rating to the ‘junk’ or non-investment level.

 

What caused Russia’s economic collapse?

The Russian system is primarily a corrupted, top-down economy (in 2005 - 35% of the economy was state owned; in 2017 it is already 70%).  The rapid increase of the state's share of the economy is not the result of the desire for a wider distribution of goods. The paradox of renationalisation in the Russian style results in the privatization of profits and the nationalization of losses (the best example of this rule was Rosneft's acquisition of Bashneft). Taking over the companies by the state is also a cause of the inability of many establishments due to poor management and ubiquitous corruption. Interestingly, the losses resulting from ineffective management and corruption are estimated at several times the losses Russia suffered as a result of falling oil prices.

Cancer that devours the economy is a fully sanctioned system of good’s division among the oligarchs. The economy is based on a loyal group of oligarchs who gain enormous wealth, with the full support of state institutions and secret services that follow the instructions sent from the Kremlin. The greatest beneficiary of this system is the President and his closest surroundings. Whoever wants to conduct business in Russia must adapt to it, otherwise, will be excluded from the game according to the letter of the law. According to the latest Amnesty International report, Russia is in 131^st place in terms of corruption in 176 countries.

Undoubtedly, the cause of the recent crisis in Russia, as well as the main threat to the economy in the long term context, is the lack of diversification and its full dependence on the export of raw materials. The attempts by the government to find a “blue ocean” and develop it under the conditions of the Russian economy have so far failed. The cause of the collapse was not the bad ideas, but ideology-based, top-down strategy for their implementation. It is worth recalling at least three flagship projects: the nanotechnology investment (with a huge plant), the Hyperloop project or the Russian version of Silicon Valley in Skolkovo.  Huge investments that were supposed to change the face of the Russian economy but ended with disappointment.

There is no doubt that the Western sanctions imposed on Russia after its aggression against Ukraine, are making difficult to get out of the crisis soon. These sanctions not only limit economic cooperation, trade but also don’t allow Moscow to take the new loans, needed at least to service the debt.

This is already the 4th economic crisis in Russia in the last 25 years. However, this one seems exceptionally long and especially troublesome for the Russians. Society is clearly moving from the consumer society to the shortage society. It seems that the rulers are aware of the main causes of the weak economic situation and could take appropriate steps to improve the situation.

Propaganda for the crisis. Crisis for the propaganda.

Why do not people protest? For many reasons: they are afraid because of the repressive system in Russia works very intensively, they have to struggle for survival as well as more than 60 million of Russians are maintained by the state (20 mln employees, 40 mln pensioners).

 An important role is also played by the massive propaganda machine. The lie repeated many times becomes true - it is the main rule of the Russian information policy. People are being told that the main cause of all economic failures and worsening living conditions are Western sanctions imposed on Russia. Imposing retaliatory sanctions on the other countries, such as the ban on the import of food products from Poland, has been explained as a beneficial for Russian citizens because European goods are “genetically modified and unhealthy”.

The aggressive rhetoric of the government and state media intensified while the Russian economy went into recession. As Western sanctions have caused the impoverishment of the Russian people, on one hand dealing with the crisis is a patriotic duty of every Russian, and on the other hand, the role of the state is to respond to this hostile gesture.  In this situation, it is absolutely natural that defense is a priority and that significant resources from the budget for military modernization should be devoted. In the budget for 2017, $43 billion was allocated for defense (4.7 % of Russia's GDP), what in the situation of a country that is struggling with the economic crisis, not a war, is a dizzying sum.

Undoubtedly, the main task of the internal propaganda is to exclude President Putin from responsibility for the economic problems that the Russians face. There will always be a scapegoat that can be blamed for the misery of ordinary people. Smart shifting of the responsibility shows that President Putin has nothing to do with the deteriorating living conditions of the citizens. Some analysts compare Putin's carefully crafted image with the propaganda of Brezhnev's time. There are for sure many similarities in economic matters: backwardness of the top-down market, the economic gap between Russia and western countries, expensive top-down planned unsuccessful investments, huge costs of the aggressive international policy and lack of necessary economic reforms. However, this comparison should be a warning to President Putin because it was the catastrophic economic situation that led to the collapse of Brezhnev and subsequent historical changes in the Soviet Union.

Russians because of their mentality, history, as well as understandable fear, do not undermine the official line of authority. However it is interesting, how successful is Russian propaganda abroad.

I would admit that the so called active measures not only retained the efficiency from the Cold War but more effectively adapted to the new capabilities of modern technology. Internet development has abolished previous communication barriers. New media provides real-time access to information and enables immediate penetration. Thanks to social media, anonymous individuals can quickly disseminate desirable content. The Russian, foreign language media (RT, Sputnik), theoretically objective bloggers, Internet trolls, but also invited to the discussion journalists, scientists - all working on favorable for Russia message to the world. Russian foreign media serve not only to support Russian policy but also to disseminate misinformation about the true state of the economy, science, poverty, and investment.

Sometimes the message produced in Kremlin, after being transported through several friendly sources, begins to operate as reliable information in the trusted Western media.

Few months ago Ministry of Finance and the Russian Federation Federal State Statistic Service (Rosstat) presented data on sudden improvement of the economic situation. Based on this information, some banks, financial institutions have prepared optimistic financial forecasts. This information was also picked up by several journalists, proclaiming not only the end of the economic crisis in Russia but also a sudden positive change in the Russian economic structure.

In an article entitled "Sorry Senator McCain, Russia No Longer Just a Gas Station Masquerading As A Country" (Forbes magazine) the author maliciously refers to “hating Russia" Senator McCain, claiming that the Senator was wrong because Russia does not only managed to cope with the crisis already but also magically diversified its sources of revenue…Means that Kremlin Anti-Crisis Show runs really well, and journalist failed to do his homework properly.

The Rosstat is directly subject to political scrutiny. Due to the need of improving the image of the government ahead of the spring 2018 election, last data published by Rosstat are in conflict with the data from previous months. In January 2017 the Russian Statistical Office changed the methodology of research and by the way, they completely changed the market data. According to the new information, over the last two years (2015-2016) the Russian economy shrank by 3%, and not by 4.5% as previously estimated. There has been an increase in industrial output, although there has been a simultaneous decline in citizens' income and fixed investment.

Rosstat's subordination to the government made official data less credible, and unfortunately, they should be treated more as an element of propaganda than reliable market data.

 According to the report by The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) “Increasing caution is advised when interpreting these data. Doubts regarding the quality of the indicators presented by Rosstat make the assessment of Russia’s actual economic situation increasingly difficult. As a consequence, reservations towards the Russian statistics office seem to be all the more justified. These suggest that Rosstat is under political pressure from the Kremlin and that these new, improved statistics meet the government’s propaganda-motivated demand for information.”

Political and Economic Consequences

Christopher Hartwell, President of Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE) is summarizing the current Russian economic situation: “Sounding the trumpet about defeating the recession would be like Napoleon claiming he conquered Russia once he reached Smolensk,”.

Available economic data indicate that Russia might be slowly recovering from the crisis, but stagnation is expected in the years to come. Due to the lack of in-depth reforms, compared to other countries, the Russian economy will be receding. Even the Russian Prime Minister Medvedev during the last Gaidar Forum Russia and the World: the Choice of Priorities said: “The fact that Russia overcame the recession doesn’t necessarily mean the problems are resolved,” He also noticed that the key challenges are Russia’s technological backwardness, the commodity-based economy and the enormous role of the government in it. The World Bank report on Russia (RER) shows encouraging signs of overcoming the recession (recovery in consumer demand, the growth of economic activity, inflation decline). However, it states that adjustment has taken place through massive expenditure cuts, as opposed to revenue mobilization and still Russia’s growth projections remain sensitive to oil prices.

The last available monthly report of the World Bank on Russia (June 2017) again highlights the signs of recovery and defines medium-term prognosis as favorable, but it says Russia’s longer-term growth prospects remained constrained by its low productivity.

This means that further falls in oil prices, for example, through faster shale production in the USA or ineffectiveness of oil production limitation agreement could reduce revenue, investment, and confidence. If the President Donald Trump will fulfill his promise to make the U.S. an independent energy power, Russia may have big problems maintaining stable economic growth. Sooner or later the development of car batteries combined with the emergence of renewable energy sources will make the basic Russian raw materials no longer an essential element of the global economy.

The Russian economy is strictly based on public expenditure, so any cuts in these expenditures forced by reduced oil prices, lead to serious effects throughout the economy. The average income of statistical Russians in 20% comes from the state (in 2006 it was only 11,6 with a decline in income from business activity (in 2016 only 7.8%, in 1993  - 18.6%.)

So how the weak condition of the Russian economy translates into the political power of President Putin? Mass strikes and protests in the near future in Russia are unlikely. It seems that the only thing that could hinder President Putin's ruling is the oligarch rebellion caused by the aggressive and uncompromising foreign policy of the Kremlin that leads many Russian businessmen to serious financial problems. As a result of sanctions, some oligarchs can not conduct the free economic activity and use their frozen funds abroad. Moreover, majority of the oligarchs is no longer willing to bear the costs of unprofitable government investments. So far, Putin has won the oligarchs with his loyalty and protection by the state services as well as strong opposition to introduce any economic reforms that could disrupt the existing oligarchic system. Undoubtedly, the extension of the US sanctions will undermine President Putin's position among influential Russian businessmen. How long will it be possible to maintain the support of the oligarchs in a country where there is less and less to be taken, is unknown.

There is such a joke in Russia: Before the next year's election, Putin went to the fortune-teller asking for his political future. The fortune - teller said that it would be his last spring. Putin: "In that case, there will be no spring". I am wondering if this simple solution can be easily translated into the economy.

CypRUS. The role of the European Union and Russia in the failure of Cyprus reunification process.

Social context.

In Nicosia, Greek and Turkish Cypriots meet in the buffer zone to show their support for the unification process. During these meetings, they read poetry, organize joint attractions for children, talk. However, it is definitely not enough to force politicians from both sides to make the more decisive action. As rightly sums up the fiasco of the Crans-Montana talks one of Cyprus website, "Cypriot leaders traveled to the Alps knowing there was no pressure on them to make peace."

The social context of the Cyprus reunification process and its failure is not of interest to the media due to the small number of Cypriots actively involved in supporting the unification negotiations. The joint meetings of the small group of Greek and Turkish Cypriot supporters of unification are more socializing than direct political action. Too bad, because what they say is convincing and patriotic:

„My father sais to me

 Love your Homeland

My Homeland is divided into two

Which part should I love? (Poem by Nese Yasin)

However, it is difficult to deny the point of pro-union movement leaders who pay attention to the main social barrier of reunification: nationalism, which is further promoted at all, levels of education, in churches and mosques, the military and the media. Textbooks on both sides contain ideologically-re-edited versions of the island's history instead of the truth. The chiefs of both armies are nationals of other countries (Greece and Turkey). On government buildings, there are two flags (the Republic of Cyprus and Greece or the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and Turkey). On both sides, there is no support for businessmen who would like to cooperate with each other. There are also no massive integration programs as a result of which young people could get to know each other better.

Fostering mutual hatred, turning a blind eye to the aggression of young people against the minority, renewing fears and exaggerating the wrongdoings is brutally exploited by domestic and foreign opponents of a reunification of the island. To put it bluntly, there is no strong, organized and efficient group in Cyprus, which would contribute to the reunification of the island. In contrast to the large and influential forces which are against unity. The Orthodox Church and right-wing parties openly declare their reluctance to unite the island. The main unofficial opposition to the unification of Cyprus is Russia and controlled by the Kremlin, prominent Greek politicians as well as a whole range of pro-Russian Cypriot officials from various right-to-left parties, including officially supporting the integration the Communist Party (AKEL).

Cyprus  - European Union member state.

Cyprus is a small island with only 800.000 people, but its location in the Eastern Mediterranean in the south of Turkey, west of Syria and Lebanon, northwest of Israel, north of Egypt, and southeast of Greece makes it a crucial point in international politics. Thus the reunification of the island is an important issue not only for the countries of the region but also for Russia, the European Union, and NATO.

The biggest beneficiary of the reunification of Cyprus, apart from the inhabitants of the island itself, would be the European Union due to increased security in the Mediterranean, the reduction of Turkey-Greece tension and new energy politics’ opportunities. The Cypriot agreement would open a new chapter in the European Union's relations with Turkey, allowing a new form of cooperation. Solving Cyprus problem is also opening the way for a deeper EU-NATO cooperation by eliminating obstacles connected with difficult bilateral relations between Greece and Turkey. However, considering Cypriot relations with Russia, the entry of Cyprus into the North Atlantic structures seems simply unrealistic. The agreement would also create an opportunity to send gas from East Mediterranean to the European Union through Turkey (maybe also to Turkey), which would be another step towards diversifying gas supplies.

Overcoming the long-term crisis would be a Brussels’ tremendous success. It would definitely improve the image and show the European Union as a strong and united organization. In the face of serious problems that have recently plagued Europe, such an achievement would be immense. That is why it is difficult to understand the limited involvement of UE and its member states in the Cyprus unification process.

Special nature of Cyprus-Russia Relationship

Russia has little to gain from the end of a four-decade split between Greek and Turkish Cypriots., but the failure of peace talks would be undeniably beneficial for Moscow. It would remain the Greek-Turkish crack within NATO, freeze gas pipeline projects in the Mediterranean area and allow Russia to keep Cyprus as a Russian foothold in the European Union.

For years, Russia and Cyprus had close ties: financial, political, social, religious. In Cyprus, Kremlin-related businessmen are investing their money using a favorable tax system. Cyprus was the top destination for direct investment out of Russia in 2016, and the largest source of foreign investment into Russia. According to the Russian central bank, in the second quarter of 2016, it accounted for $ 2.8 billion in investment, more than twice as much as the next country.

Cyprus is Russia's gateway to the European Union, which Moscow sometimes uses despite Brussels’ opposition. It is worth mentioning that in 2015 Cyprus agreed to allow Russian naval ships to stop in Cyprus for ports. Cyprus ports may be used to smuggle jet fuel into Syria, bypassing EU restrictions.

 Cyprus citizenship by investment program is very popular among Russians.  It is enough to invest in real estate to get a Cypriot (UE) passport. In 2016, Russians were the largest group among new RoC citizens, 35% of all newly issued passports were granted to Russian citizens, the other UK citizens 9%, third Greeks - 8%.

 How strong Russian position in one of EU member countries is has been also proven by the story of detained at Larnaca airport Christopher R. Metsos - Russian Intelligence agent, who was released on bail and then disappeared. The Guardian wrote that "his disappearance has highlighted Cyprus's close ties to Russia, and the potential that Moscow helped him escape from the Mediterranean island.”

Another influential example of Russia's submission is the cooperation of the Cypriot authorities with representatives of Moscow in the Magnitsky case. This attitude has caused a wave of criticism towards the government in Nicosia and a series of articles condemning the servility of Cyprus against Moscow. POLITICO in the article "West turn a blind eye on Cyprus” –writes” After all, Cyprus is facilitating a Russian investigation whose sole purpose is to cover up one of the biggest fraud cases in Russian history. Meanwhile, authorities in Nicosia are stalling their own investigations into the laundering of proceeds through Cypriot bank accounts.

This includes Cyprus under such circumstances would be contrary to American interests and values. It also would undermine the effectiveness of the Magnitsky Act and send the wrong message - that Russian corruption and human rights abuses will continue and that the enablers in the West will face no consequences. "

There are about 50,000 Russians in Cyprus (not including those who already have a Cypriot passport) and a similar number of so-called Pontus Greek Cypriots - citizens of the former Soviet republics who could prove their Greek ancestry and emigrated to Greece and Cyprus. Pontus speak Greek, but they communicate with each other in Russian and operate in their closed Russian-speaking group. Every year the island is visited by hundreds of thousands of Russian tourists - Russians are the second largest group of tourist coming to Cyprus, just after UK citizens.

This year, Russians living in Cyprus decided to set up their own political party. The authorities in Nicosia consider it as understandable.

Russia's friendly relationship with Cyprus is nothing new, although it has been sorely tested during Cyprus bank crisis. Cyrus bailout – was, in fact, the punishment imposed on Cyprus by the European Union for too close cooperation with Russia. Thousands of innocent people have been deprived of their savings by the decision of the EU authorities. As a result of Troika decisions, bailout affected in a huge resentment of the Cypriots against Europe and in economic terms the takeover of the largest Cypriot bank by Russian shareholders. Thanks to the financial support that Russia has given Cyprus during the crisis and a joint aversion to the EU institutions, it can be said that the relations between the two countries are even stronger.

Cypriots were surprised with the reports about Russian melding in elections in the US and EU. At the beginning of 2017 appeared the allegations of Russian influencing the Cypriot peace process. The case was described by three credible newspapers: NYT, Politico, and Bloomberg. The Cypriots were disturbed by these reports, and President Nicos Anastasiades reminded journalists not to give out untested information.

But the Russians have already obstructed the process of unification of the island. In 2004, the Russians blocked the UN Security Council's peace agreements, prepared by UN and supported by the United States. That agreement failed because Greek Cypriots rejected it, but Russia also vetoed a resolution in the U.N. Security Council on changes that would have taken effect if Cyprus had reunified(the 14 other members voted in favor). It was Moscow's first veto since 1994.

Also during the last round of peace talks, officially and unofficially with the help of "friendly" Cypriot and Greek politicians, the Russians torpedoed the unification process. 

(Mustafa Akıncı, Nikos Anastasiadis, Antonio Guterres)
When the negotiations began in Geneva, Russia's ambassador to Cyprus, participated in a seminar organized in Nicosia by small right-wing parties. The seminar was decidedly anti-union, and Ambassador Stanislav Osadchiy was greeted there with a standing ovation. When the information was publicized and a scandal erupted, the ambassador explained that he was not aware of the nature of the meeting. Cyprus Mail - English language newspaper in Cyprus have pointed out the improper remarks of the Russian ambassador about the peace process as well as his unreasonable popularity. It is a fact that a Russian ambassador is a person who is known by most Cypriots and is often a guest in the national media, as opposed to the Greek ambassador, whose name does not know the majority of the island so friendly to Greece.

The allegations formulated by Cyprus Mail already in November 2016 "Russia's ambassador, in contrast, is the darling of the anti-settlement media and of the rejectionist political parties, because he constantly says things aimed at undermining the talks or making the pursuit of a deal More difficult. He successfully made the issue of guarantees, a potential deal-breaker, announcing after a meeting with Giorgos Lillikas that the guarantees were unheard of in the modern age and adding that Nato would never accept the settlement, as if they were any of his business " got even more meaningful in February 2017 after the talks were stopped because of the unusual behavior of Greek Minister of Foreign Affairs Nikos Kotsias, a faithful Russian friend.

This is a fragment from Cyprus Mail describing the behavior of the Foreign Minister of Greece during the January talks: "Then the working lunch started, during which, according to sources, Kotzias started lecturing, interrupting and criticizing other participants. He reminded Guterres that the UN's only job was to implement UN Security Council resolutions, adding that Cyprus was not an intercoammunal problem but a question of invasion and occupation. Then Guterres had a meeting with all three powers guarantor, followed by bilateral meetings with each of them. The guarantor powers agrees to let the senior experts start work on the issue. All except Kotzias were ready for the working group to start immediately. The Greek FM said the Greek side was not prepared for this to happen and asked for a ten-day postponement. He insisted others pushed back. "

The role of Greek politicians in the final rupture of the unification negotiations is unclearshots, but hit 20 times overboard). European and NATO intelligence officials were poring over the links between the Kremlin and senior figures from Syriza and the Independent Greeks party since 2015.

Despite numerous accusations of interfering in the integration negotiations, Russia has denied that it was undermining Cyprus' reunification. In the words of its representatives, the Kremlin has described press reports of its alleged ingenuity in the peace process as "fake news", underscoring its devotion to Cyprus and Cypriots.

Consequences of the missed opportunity

 Intense and multifaceted involvement of Russia and her friends undoubtedly paid off. The negotiations were finally broken and there is little chance that they will start again in the near future. Against renewing the unification process soon is not the only campaign before the Cyprus elections in 2018 but mainly the absence of a strong organized social and political base in Cyprus and abroad, which would be in favor of integration.

With a limited commitment in Cyprus reunification process of the European Union authorities, which once again hand over a sensitive region under Russian domination, and agree that an EU member state is clearly operating as a Russian sphere of influence, it is likely that a division of the island will progress.

Both Greek and Turkish Cypriots blame each other for the failure of the unification talks. Already a few days after the break of the talks, one can see the reciprocal, unfriendly gestures and radicalization of views on both sides of the island. The worst possible, but unfortunately the real consequence of the breakdown of the peace talks is the annexation of North Cyprus by Turkey. Moreover, in the context of the Syrian conflict and the migration problem in Europe, Brussels’ policy on the reunification of Cyprus seems very short-sighted and reckless.

(Espen Barth Eide - One of the few, sincerely saddened by the failure of Cypriot peace negotiations.)

It would not be fair, however, not to mention significant support and personal involvement in the negotiations of United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and UN Special Advisor, Espen Barth Eide, who, despite unjustified critique of the Cypriot authorities, worked to the end, and believed in the success of the talks.

Happy New Year Russia!

The year 2017 will mark the 100th anniversary of the October Revolution. Revolution, which brought the most murderous, cruel and inhuman system that oppressed half of Europe for over 70 years. Today, most people in Western Europe and America do not realize what a tragedy for us - the citizens of Eastern Europe was communism. The horrors of the Bolshevik activists, described in the literature, fully coincide with the relations of those who survived the revolution. My great-grandmother, who survived two world wars, always said that nobody sowed terror such as the Bolsheviks. Their cruelty, stemming from years of humiliating peasants and workers by the Tsars, took in 1917 the nature of rabid animals released from cages and wanting to avenge his tormentor. The desire for revenge, easy prey, degradation of those who stood up over them and absolute impunity of the boors, led to the murder of hundreds of thousands of people.

The Red Terror was not only a lack of respect for human life, property rights, above all it was the omnipresent fear. Anyone could have been shot, enough was a false accusation, not spared either child. Executions were carried out in the middle of nowhere at the naked victims in order to pass the Red Army clothing. The corpses defiled, snatching for profit gold teeth.

For the residents of Eastern Europe, for generations, a symbol of law, values, justice was the West. Although Soviet propaganda that proclaimed "rotting West", Eastern Europeans believed that in the US and Western Europe, are undeniable, everlasting values, that give a sense of security and allow you to live with dignity.

Paradoxically, in the centenary of the October Revolution, a reality seems to be a perversion of the basic values of the Western world - property rights, democratic rules, physical security and economic development. Unwavering until now the authorities become questionable. There were populist slogans, which would have been even ashamed for a provincial smartass, and now proudly repeats them future United States president. But what must be emphasized, this is not the result of the thought-out strategy of the Kremlin, or the actions of the Russian special services, unfortunately, this is the result of the degeneration of European and American political class, which is focusing on problems of minority groups, forgetting about majority group of bread eaters.

Is it possible that someone, who Anna Politkovska describes as "KGB spy, who even in this role did not make any particular impression" led to profound changes in the European consciousness, as some journalists claim. Certainly not, but without a doubt Vladimir Putin, it is one of the best, and what is very important, tough and consistent player in the contemporary world politics. Significantly, he is also limited in a lot of political and social dependency. He can operate fully autonomously, independently of the current party line, and despite the unfavorable economic situation. For several years, the Western media write about return of superpower politics of Russia and about the influence of the Kremlin on political realities. How is this possible if since several years, the Russian economy is in recession. Based mostly on oil and state, poorly managed companies, the Russian economy barely breathing. The Russian army since the days of the Soviet Union plunged the increasingly crisis. Underpaid, underfed soldiers, steal what they can. Outdated equipment, not only does not work in modern combat conditions, but often is simply a danger to soldiers serving it. "Modern" achievements of military technology, bring a smile on the faces of not only specialists of weapons, but even the Internet. Frequent technical problems of the aircraft carrier "Kuznietsov" have become topics of many jokes. Further planes disasters, show the state of the Russian aviation. Newly developed tank, promoted as a miracle of modern technology, looks like the German construction from ... the Second World War. Promoting "patriotic Russian science", instead of rising Russia in the technological peaks, leads her on a research scrap-heap. In such unfavorable conditions, half the world sees Vladimir Putin as a savior and the other as a serious threat.
Electoral success of pro Kremlin candidates can't be attribute only to Putin. Bulgaria, Moldova, USA, next year probably France, and Germany make choices based on the achievements and failures of their politicians, possibly using experiences of other European countries.Without a doubt, they are taken by Russia's attempts to disrupt the elections, with the help of influential businessmen and journalists who spread false information to the public. It works according to the schema described by Politkovskaya, "Putin comes to things like a typical KGB officer. First released the information trial balloon in a narrow group of people. In today's Russia is a group of the political elite of the capital. This is to canvass the possible reaction on cultivated politics. If such a reaction does not occur, or if it has the dynamics of jellyfish, it's all a game. Putin can push his line, spread ideas and act as it deems appropriate, without needing to look back." Recently this technique has been supplemented by a new form of spreading misinformation through hacking. How big role this method played in the last presidential election in the US, we do not know. Candidate that won is for Putin's definitely more convenient, that does not necessarily mean leading pro-Russian policy. Vladimir Putin is well aware of the fact that Trump is an inexperienced politician who will be making some mistakes. Ridiculing the president of the United States as well as his constant arguing with key allies, is for the Russian policy the perfect opportunity to expand its sphere of influence. If it is also possible to suggest Trump some clever advisers Kremlin - friendly, who persuade him to make concessions to Russia, the better.

No doubt it is Putin's merit is to build key alliances, that put beyond the pale of the other players.Extremely successful was  Putin's maneuver to intimidate President Erdogan and bringing to the Russian-Turkish alliance. The alliance not only strengthens the Russian position on the Middle East but what is important definitely weakens NATO in the region. Could not be underestimated also the alliance with Iran and correct relations with China, which give hope for setting in motion Russian economy. Additionally need to be mentioned the agreement with OPEC on reducing oil production, giving Russia a chance to bounce back from the economic bottom.
The year 2016 can be summarized as a year of gifts for Vladimir Putin. Gifts unearned, not elaborated, but very nice. The Weak European Union, with leaders who do not listen to its citizens, becoming less respected by intimidated by terrorists and political correctness Europeans.  The only EU country, who has not given in the Russian propaganda and for years standing in opposition to the Kremlin, decided to leave the Community. United States conduct inconsistent policy in the Middle East. With Trump as a leader, US policy will be unpredictable, short-sighted and antagonize next allies - Turkey, Japan, Israel, and thus allowing the creation of a new, powerful, based on Russia, bloc in the Middle East and Southeast Asia

Putin's Russia by Anna Politkovskaya

I was wondering lately why the Western elite is so naive in relations with Putin's Russia. Why famous journalists of the NYT and Foreign Policy, assume that they can apply to Russia the Western standards, why they believe that signed agreement will be respected, how can they consider that the image of Russia presented in the English language RT television is real. I have the impression, that today even Republicans known for its suspicion with relations to Russia,  behave like children in the fog.

If they have read Politkovskaya, after all, they would know that this is not a country that uses democratic standards. So why not  Politkovskaya became required reading for American whizzes international politics and the media authority promoted by CNN? No, because it is useless.
In my opinion, Politkovskaya stories are steeped in Slavic soul, and only the reader endowed with such sensitivity, can appreciate and fully understand her journalism. I do not agree, that this is a book about Putin. I also believe that not a political dimension is crucial for this book. It is an emotional analysis of the Russian society, depraved by an evil power. 
Reading some of the stories, you can have the impression that this is not contemporary Russia, but the tsarist times and portrayed characters have been described by Chekhov. As in Checkov novels, you will find here stories about simple people, who are maneuvering in a heartless, hostile system to realize their mundane goals, harming the weaker. There are also utterly honest patriots who endure with dignity their plight. There is also poverty, not less than the tsarist regime. Politkovskaya wrote about real Russia, without the glitz of Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Knowing so well the realities governing modern Russia like Politkovskaya did, what courage she needed to have to write about it directly, without embellishments, without reticence, without a doubt. Is it worth dying for the truth about Russia? This question is not only to Politkovskaya but also to B. Nemtsov, A. Litvinenko, and many others, already gone. Probably today with the same thought goes to sleep many opposition figures in Putin's Russia.

The tragic consequences of shameless affair and its poisoned fruits - Grigorij Rasputin and Georgij Gapon

The reforms of Peter the Great, subordinated the structure of the church to the government in many aspects. Catherine the Great continued Peter's policy about relations with the Church. She has secularized all the church properties and established secular jurisdiction for the convents.
Successive tsars increasingly subordinated the church hierarchy to themselves, while relying on the authority of the Church to legitimize their power.
The Orthodoxy was also unscrupulously exploited to the political struggle inside and outside the country. A characteristic example is a war with Napoleon. At the behest of Tsar, Orthodox Church called Napoleon the Antichrist and urged the nation to fight a holy war between good and evil.

Religious and moral pressure on believers, aimed at mobilizing them to fierce fighting was also emphasized at the activity of the Holy Alliance as well as during the Crimean War (1853-1856).
Orthodox church was an important instrument of an expansion, not only by supporting military actions but also conducting missionary activities both on the annexed land and abroad.
The schools run by the monks taught obedience to the Tsar, the Russian tradition and culture. Evangelizing activity was carried out on a large scale throughout the world, including Palestine, China, and America.
The period in the history of the Russian Orthodox Church, starting from the rule of Peter the Great and completed by the 1917 revolution could be summed up, that the affair with the regime, never ends well. Completely subordinated to the regime church and the instrumental use of the faith and its followers discouraged some intelligence from the mainstream of Russian Orthodoxy. Russians began to seek the new authority, spiritual renewal, symbolism and mystical experiences.
In the nineteenth century, the centers of spiritual life become monasteries and hermitages. The best known are Monastery Sarovo and hermitage in Optino.

Hermits who lived there, have become symbols of the true faith, asceticism, a return to the roots of the Orthodox Church. The conviction of the need for spiritual renewal of Russia, are visible in the philosophy of Soloviev and literature of Tolstoy and Dostoyevsky.

Based on the longing for simplicity as well as the faith in the mystical ability of the ascetic monks, was created the cult of Rasputin. Grigorij Rasputin appeared at the tsarist court in 1905. He was presented as a mysterious healer, holy man, and a spiritual guide. Rasputin was supposed to treat suffering from hemophilia Tsarevich Alexei. Some historians argue that his success in the treatment of Tsarevich, Rasputin obtained by using hypnosis.
There is not much information about the previous period of his life. He was born in approx.1869. Was known as a hooligan, a horse thief, vagabond. Apparently, during the attempted theft, he was heavily battered and experienced internal changes. He began to wander the holy places, struck a moralist post as well as learned some quackery and healed people. He has also claimed that he has the gift of clairvoyance.
The man with such a dubious past, however, was the most influential person in the court of the last Russian Tsar Nicholas II. Rasputin, called "tsar without a crown" was a favorite of the Empress as well as the majority of St. Petersburg ladies. Despite the repulsive appearance, lack of personal hygiene and boorish behavior was the most desirable man in St. Petersburg. The fame of the lecher, who can indulge in carnal pleasures for many hours with multiple partners at the same time, opened for him many doors and hearts. For dozens of venerable ladies, he was both spiritual and body guide.

Even more surprising is the political career of this illiterate peasant. Without a doubt, he was the most influential man at the court of Nicholas II.  Representatives of the St. Petersburg's elite and diplomacy, terrified with an unlimited contract of confidence signed with him, interceded with Tsar about Rasputin. Nicholas II answered them, that"better three Rasputins than one attack of Tsarina's hysteria". Unwillingness to Rasputin took public nature, after the next losses of Russian troops in skirmishes with the Germans during the First World War. Rasputin was suspected of deliberately advising Tsar ineffective military strategy and accused of being a German spy. In the end, Rasputin became someone so influential, that it was decided by his opponents to liquidate him immediately. Initially, he was given a large dose of cyanide in his wine, but surprisingly it didn't work. Then it was concluded to finish him off with the dagger, but he was still alive. Finally, he was shot several times. As he was still breathing, the assassins bound him and thrown under the ice on the Neva river. This happened on December 30, 1916 year.

Ten years earlier there was made another political murder of a clergyman, which is very significant for religious relations in Russia at that moment. Orthodox priest Griegorij Gapon, labor activist, led a demonstration of workers' with a petition to Tsar Nicholas II. The peaceful demonstration was fired upon by the military and under the name "Bloody Sunday" went down in history as the beginning of the 1905 revolution.

The role of the mysterious monk who gained the trust and sympathy of the workers aroused a lot of suspicions. Griegorij Gapon already in 1902 has reported to the secret police - Okhrana and offered his services. Gapon enjoyed great authority among the workers. He proposed the creation of the controlled labor movement, in support of the Tsar. By creating cheap eateries, organizing moralizing talks and direct material support to the poorest workers, police had hoped to solidify support among workers for the Tsar.

On the cold January morning 1905 the workers, women, and children singing, with portraits of Nicholas II and icons in the hands went into the Winter Palace in St. Petersburg. At the head of the marchers walked Gapon dressed in priestly robes. On the road, the peaceful march was stopped by the army. When manifesting refused to disperse, soldiers opened the fire killing hundreds of people.
After the demonstration, Gabon, surprisingly alive, went abroad, where he met with prominent leaders of the proletariat. After returning to Russia, Okhrana proposed him generous gratification for denunciations of the labor activists. Gabon agreed, not knowing that group of proletarians is listening to this conversation behind the wall. He was murdered on March 28, 1906.
Life of two best-known Russian Orthodox clergy on the beginning of the twentieth century, confirms that even the most passionate and promising romance with power does not end well. Dripping in gold Orthodox Church and its stinking rich hierarchy, for a generous remuneration offering support to autocracy and oppression of the subjects, lost public confidence. Church moving away from its role, weakened its authority and took out the holiness,  creating the crowds of ordinary crooks, who based on the social need of the sacred, were splashing in the profane.

Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great - two different, but equally decisive ways to subordination of the church

The Orthodox culture dominated all the spheres of life in medieval Russia: spirituality, morality, domestic and state structure. The role of the church as an element of the state power was unassailable. However, since the fifteenth century, the governors began the process of becoming independent from the Church. This process was initiated by Ivan IV the Terrible, who separated the roles of the state and the church. Ivan IV, known for his cruelty and elaborate torture that applied to his bondsmen, did not spare recalcitrant priests. Leonid, Archbishop of Novgorod, was holed up in a bearskin and torn apart by dogs. The monks, who did not want to give up their valuables, were thrown to the hungry bears. Convicts were given spears to defend. One, who before his death was able to knock down the animal was later canonized. 
Lev Tolstoy wrote that the more shocking than the fact that there was Ivan the Terrible, is that there was a society that approved him.  The key element of the social loyalty to Ivan the Terrible as well as his remain in power was the national commitment to the Orthodox religion and Orthodox Tsar. Ivan IV emphasized at every step his devotion to religion, going on pilgrimage, praying in the church. He claimed that his absolute authority comes from God " If you are not obedient to the ruler who commits some offense, you become not only guilty of perfidy, but damn your soul to damnation because God orders you blind obedience to your prince. "
At the time of Ivan IV, there was created a set of lifestyle and laws regulations, governing family life and relationship to the Tsar and religion - Domostroj. The document was written in a language accessible and identifies three main aspects of life.
In Part I discusses duties to God and the Tsar, Part II- The ratio of the head of the family to his wife, children and family members, Part III - Gives the advice to run a household. The document recommended long prayer (also night time), strict observance of fasting, daily attendance at worship, as an ideal puts the wealthy and thrifty house, isolated from neighbors and self-sufficient, ruled by the father of the family. You can also find there an advice on how to treat a disobedient wife: "If the wife, son or daughter does not listen to words and ignores you, is not afraid and does not do what she was told by husband or a father or mother whip according to guilt; lash but not in front of  the people, but solitude: teach, say a kind word .... "
In the fifteenth century, the Orthodox Church clashed two main theories about the role of the Church in public life. The first was represented by Nil Sorsky, who claimed that the church should be poor, but fully independent of the secular. The second concept expressed by Josif Volocki, expected powerful, rich church fully cooperating with authorities. The second concept succeeds and became the base theory for ROC (Russian Orthodox Church)- state relations for centuries.  According to it, the church was supporting state power in all priority issues, and in cooperation with the government, it builds its power. The theory has survived for centuries in Russia, and Josif Volocki, for his services was canonized. His theory was fulfilling the idea of Moscow as the Third Rome, based on the symbiosis of the state and Orthodox Church.

Ivan punished people for shaving beards, for western wear, western books, and customs. Travel to the West was recognized as a treason.Compared to Ivan IV isolation strategy, Peter the Great and his West  - open attitude started the new chapter in the history of the Russian Orthodox Church, called the "Synod period". Profound changes in the symbiotic relationship between Church and state power have occurred during the reign of Peter the Great, who carried out the reform of subordinating the Church to the state power. Peter the Great has also begun the process of opening Russia to the West, thus limiting the impact of traditional values in the life of Russian society.
For progressive Tsar, Church was the symbol of Russian backwardness, so he decided to reform it completely and surrender state power. According to the Western mainstream Enlightenment, not shunned from overt criticism of the clergy, for drunkenness, selfishness, poor education and debauchery. After returning from a trip to Europe, Peter ordered his subjects shaving beards and dressed in European clothes. What is interesting, traditionally, on the icons the devil was presented without a beard and wearing German clothes.
In 1721  there was adopted a decree setting up a collective church authority,  which replaced one-person leadership in the church and was fully dependent on the Tsar. Synod had a competence in the interpretation of dogma and liturgy as well as regulated property issues of the Church.
Typical for a legal solution to the era of Peter was the edict of May 1722 obliging the clergy to denounce the authorities about cases of violations the law, which they learned during confession. 
According to the document obligation to denounce the criminal intention revealed during the confession was justified with Gospel. Argued that, an act of the confession was not fulfilled, as there was no sorrow for the sins. 
Zealous members of the clergy filled the obligation imposed on them too helpfully, keeping in view their own benefit. Refers to them,  "[...] it is better to err, reporting than silence" 
As was to be expected,  a number of the worshipers decided to avoid the confession, so the another Tsar edicts impose on the citizens the obligation of completing confession under threat of fines. In order to control the clergy were required, to keep records of acceding to confession. There was even introduced a system of written certificates of holding the confession, which was recommended to use remaining journeys.
Since the beginning of the eighteenth century, Tsar has started intensive subordination of monasteries, as well as the finances of the Church. In 1701 issued a decree depriving monasteries income of the ownership of land, property and manufacturing facilities, and obliging the state to provide in exchange material resources. The state administration also imposed on the Church organization of the hospitals, asylums, and organizing schools.
For sure the main reason of Peter the Great actions against the Church was to strengthen his own position. However, not the only one.  It was also about his fascination with Protestantism and western philosophy of the churches' role: - church more as a social servant than as a governor.
However, the role of the Orthodox Church in the eighteenth century Russia was not to be underestimated. The deep roots of faith in society, the distinctive element of Russians from neighboring Poles and Lithuanians, the mobilization to fight the enemy for the faith - it was all too important for the Tsar, to fully demolish the Orthodox Church.  

Crucial for the state were the main principles proclaimed by Orthodox Church. Particularly the humility, perfectly preparing its followers for the role of docile subjects of the state.
Peter the Great formally started to use the title of "father of the fatherland". It also meant that he took the position of the patriarch, to whom this title previously belonged.
Both Ivan the Terrible and Peter the Great realized vision of the total power basing on the religious tradition. Both intimidating, demeaning and using the humility of the orthodox society, changed the country bearing in mind the only creation of their own imperial, absolute power. 
The huge success of the adopted strategy is demonstrated by the fact that despite the unprecedented atrocities, which characterized their governments, in contemporary Russia, you can meet the monuments of Ivan the Terrible and Peter the Great.

Dadin, along with Magnitsky, Crimea, Donbass,"Boeing", Savchenko - straws not to be forgotten

Ildar Dadin was sentenced in December 2015, under Article 212.1 (for repeated participation in the opposition protests) to three years in a penal colony. His sentence was later reduced to two and a half years.

Nearly a year later, on November 1, 2016, a letter of Dadin was published, in which he claims that 12 people were beating him in the colony and hung him by his shackled hands behind his back, while the chief of the colony threatened him with rape and death. In the letter he describes:

“Over the course of that day, I was beaten a total four times, by 10-12 people at once...After the third beating, they lowered my head into a toilet right there in the holding cell.”He goes on to describe being cuffed and hung from the ceiling. “Being suspended in this manner brought about terrible pain in the wrists twisted out my elbows, and caused horrible back pain. I was suspended like that for half an hour.“Then they took off my underwear and said they would bring another prisoner to rape me unless I stopped my hunger strike.”The prison boss later allegedly told Dadin that if he complained his beatings could be made worse, and he could be killed and buried “under the fence”.

After his letter was published, unknown people sent messages in social networks to relatives and friends of Ildar Dadin telling that he was found hanged in his cell. After reading this message, Ildar Dadin's mother, who had a weak heart, was taken to hospital with suspected brain attack.

On the 24th of November, European Parament has adopted the resolution to release Mr. Dadin. 

Parliament calls on the Russian authorities to immediately and unconditionally release Mr. Dadin and “all those detailed on false or unsubstantiated charges or for using their right to freedom of expression and assembly”.

Parliament also stresses the need for a thorough and transparent independent investigation after Mr. Dadin’s recent allegations of torture inside the prison. Russia is reminded by MEPs of the importance of its “full compliance” with its international legal obligations as per its membership of the Council of Europe and other such organizations.

History of Tsarist Russia, the USSR, and the Russian Federation knows many similar stories about activists, convicted by the government of the excessively high imprisonment, effected in inhuman conditions, often completed with the tragic death of a prisoner.

Several of these stories gained notoriety in the world, about some of the martyrs were created books and even movies. However the majority of dissidents didn't draw either the glory of international publicity or rehabilitation. They often stay in mass graves, together with other rebels against the big Russian Imperium, no matter under which political system they were active. 

Several times in the last month Russian media were calling to release two Russian prisoners, "illegally arrested" by the US and held there adjudged punishment - Victor Bout and Konstantin Yaroshenko. Viktor Bout - Russian "Lord of War" is the international arms dealer, sentenced by US court to 25 years imprisonment. Konstantin Yaroshenko is a Russian pilot, accused and convicted of drug trafficking to 20 years in prison. Russian press reports extensively about the drama of families of the two prisoners, about a sick mother of Yaroshenko and longing wife and children of Viktor Bout. Both the families and dealing with their story journalists, see hope in the new authorities of the White House.

So how the Russian media presents Dadin's case and his accusations against the prison administration. The regime logs provide "objective" information that according to the doctors, who examined Dadin, there is a lack of any signs of torture or ill-treatment, and that Dadin, as say representatives of the prison service has a huge imagination. The only newspaper that is considered in Russia as an independent "Novaya Gazieta" writes about "slipping on a banana peel" and Dadin's case as a second Magnitsky problem. In the article, they are advising the Russian government, to move Dadin to another criminal facility, otherwise once again will be loud about Russia: "Here, for example, will come to power Fillon and want to lift the sanctions against Russia, but as he does, when in his own parliament from all sides: Dadin, Magnitsky," Boeing "" Boeing ", Dadin, Magnitsky?" ...A straw and a straw, and you end up with a stack."

Regardless of the political system, in Russia, the single human being does not mean much. Sooner or later Mr. Dadin will join his better-known colleagues, Anna Politkovskaya, Boris Nemtsov, Siergiej Magnitsky,  Aleksiej Devotchenko, Natalia Estemirova, Aleksander Litvinenko. People responsible for those murders has never been arrested, judged and sentenced. That is how the tides of Russian history runs. 

Drawing by Danzig Baldaev